Predicting the spread of COVID-19¶

We developed a novel probabilistic model to estimate the spread of COVID-19.

Note

The results of our research are still under review. A preprint of the publication is available here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.13695. The code of the simulator is available at: https://github.com/covid19-modeling/pyncov-19

Current estimations for Spain¶

Percentage of the population infected¶

Total deaths¶

Daily deaths¶

How it works¶

We curated the model using the most recent publications describing the dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and we created a simulator that generates trajectories of possible scenarios in a realistic way, based on the assumptions of how the virus spreads. Using data from the observed fatalities, we trained our model to find the most probable configuration that leads, on average, to the observed number of fatalities.

Data source¶

We are currently training our models for Spain using the data provided by Datadista.

For the rest of the world, we use the Johns Hopkins dataset.